Every management decision involves risk. The difference between success and failure is often how well that risk is accounted for and managed. In project planning especially, ignoring uncertainty can have serious consequences.

Using deterministic or single-point estimates results in two main types of error:

• At best, the single value obtained for the project completion date or cost may approximate the middle of the range of possible outcomes. This means that there is only a 50% chance of achieving them. Most projects demand a plan with a much higher probability of success.
• Often the situation is much worse, in that the chance of achieving these single value estimates may be much smaller than 50% due to distributions being skewed and to a phenomenon known as merge bias.

The only thing certain about a deterministic plan is that it will be wrong. The solution is Full Monte™ – a cost and schedule risk analysis from Barbecana that graphically displays the probability that your projects will complete on schedule and within budget.

Full Monte™ utilises Monte Carlo risk analysis to produce realistic estimates of all calculated dates, float/slack time and costs. Full Monte™ factors in uncertainty, helps you set realistic expectations and adjust your project plans.

Full Monte™ also performs sensitivity analysis, pinpointing tasks likely to affect project completion. It protects your projects, your plans and, most importantly, your reputation.

Some tools try to make risk analysis "simpler than possible". Barbecana has gone to great lengths to make sure Full Monte is easy to use, but it is not "dumbed down". For example, some products produce symmetrical tornado charts, based just on a standard deviation; they look pretty but are generally not correct. Full Monte™ estimates the true values of the bar ends resulting from the optimistic and pessimistic durations respectively, while fully taking into account the merge bias resulting from all other task durations varying as specified.

Cost and schedule risk analysis for Microsoft® Project and Oracle Primavera® that helps you build more realistic schedules and improve your chance of project success.

Lucidus Consulting is the UK partner for Barbecana's Full Monte™ and offers implementation and training to get you on the right track as quickly as possible.